Why Baltimore will win the AFC Championship

Kouya Shimizu

•

28 January, 2024

Lamar Jackson and company will have their hands full during this week's AFC Championship as Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs are coming to town. In my previous article, I identified what critical components needed to be hit if Kansas City wants to win. Today, I will do the same for the Ravens.

Keys To Victory for the Ravens:

Get the ball out quick & Play strong in Pass Protection

Steve Spagnuolo has been a great defensive coordinator in the NFL, and his Chiefs' defense this year puts the pressure on quickly. The defense led the league in QB hits and was second in sacks. Keep this front in check by getting it out to playmakers in space like rookie WR Zay Flowers and let them put in work with the ball in their hands. Baltimore was bottom ten in the league in sacks allowed this year, partially due to Lamar's ability to buy time and how quickly he's gotten the ball out this year. If this offense wants to be successful, they must keep the Kansas City front from knocking them out of rhythm.

Limit the Kelce-Mahomes duo as much as possible

Surely, this is much easier said than done. Still, it's definitely in the cards for a defense as versatile on the back end as Baltimore. This legendary duo has caught fire over the last two weeks as the QB-TE connection has hit for 141 yards and two touchdowns combined in their two playoff games. Expect second-year Safety Kyle Hamilton out of Notre Dame to see a lot of action in Kelce's direction. A bigger Defensive back would handle Kelce's size, but will he be able to stay with the future Hall of Famer? We will have to find out. By taking the ball away from Kelce, you force a WR core that has led the league in drops to come in on the road and make plays. Kansas City will also be down Kadarius Toney due to an injury. WR Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce should see most targets through the air.

Control the time of possession

When Tom Brady was dominating teams in his 20+ year career, the common theme was to keep him on the sideline for as long as possible. The glove fits for Mahomes and company in the current age of the NFL as well, as the young QB has proven to be able to lead his team back under almost any circumstance. Last week, for example, he led the Chiefs on a long drive to win the game in the fourth quarter. With Baltimore's balanced offense, keeping the rushing attack steady while effectively passing in the short to intermediate game will keep the clock moving and Mahomes on the sideline where he can't hurt you.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Chiefs 20

I think time of possession will be a huge factor in this game. Assume Lamar and this Baltimore offense can keep the pace and limit Mahomes's scoring opportunities. Baltimore's defense is good enough to make multiple stops in that case. They are a defense that won the triple crown in sacks, points allowed, and turnovers. This unit will come to play and win. They must play physically with the Chiefs players on the outside to disrupt the timing between Mahomes and some of the younger receivers. I see Baltimore's rushing attack wearing down the KC line as the game goes on and Lamar Jackson cutting them up like a surgeon because of it. Ultimately, I think this game will be an absolute thriller with Jackson leading his team to the Super Bowl, the first of his career.